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Channel: Antonia Colibasanu, Author at Geopolitical Futures
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Turkey’s Time to Decide on Russia

On Feb. 4, Turkey’s foreign minister said that Russian President Vladimir Putin would visit Turkey sometime in February to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Three days later, the minister...

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Disruptions to Undersea Cables

Unconfirmed reports from Israeli media suggest that underwater data cables near Yemen in the Red Sea – the AAE-1, Seacom, Europe India Gateway and TGN systems – have been damaged. So far, only Seacom...

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European Defense and the Future of Ukraine

On Wednesday, European Union member states agreed to allocate an extra 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) to the European Peace Facility by the end of the year, nearly matching the 6.1 billion euros...

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Fallout From the Attack in Russia

Four days after the terrorist attack in Moscow, the most important question is how the Kremlin will respond – which itself will depend on who was behind the attack. Islamic State took credit for it;...

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NATO Weighs Its Future Ukraine Support

NATO marked its 75th anniversary last week. The moment was naturally accompanied by talk about the future of the Ukraine war and the alliance’s support for Kyiv. On Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General...

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European Views on US Global Posture

The notion that all countries operate within constraints is one of the main pillars of geopolitics. It came up repeatedly during my recent visit to the United States, where I attended several talks on...

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Germany’s Future, According to Germans

From the war in Ukraine to economic uncertainties at home and across the Western world, Germany is facing a number of challenges with which its leaders will soon be forced to contend. Last week, I had...

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Meditations on the Mediterranean

Throughout history, the Mediterranean Sea has been Europe’s most important body of water, shaping its relationship with itself and with the rest of the world. It has been a cradle of civilization and a...

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In New Caledonia, France Sees Foreign Meddling

French President Emmanuel Macron held an emergency meeting on May 20 with his defense and security council to discuss the unrest in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia. During two other...

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The Mainstreaming of the European Far-Right

The European Parliament elections held earlier in June were met with the customary concern of every such electoral cycle, with observers wondering if far-right anti-establishment groups would gain...

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Europe After French and UK Elections

By Sunday, voters in two leading Western European states, France and the United Kingdom, almost certainly will have initiated significant overhauls of their respective governments. In France, the...

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Explaining the China-NATO Spat

NATO recently issued a statement directly accusing China for the first time of supplying weapons to Russia. The alliance urged China to withdraw “all material and political support” for Russia’s war...

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Serbia’s Slow Turn to the West

Thousands of protesters marched in cities throughout Serbia this week against the reopening of a controversial lithium mine that had been shuttered for two years thanks to earlier protests. More than...

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The Truth About Turkey’s ‘Pivot’ to China

Turkey is on a diplomatic offensive to justify a foreign policy that some believe is too friendly to too many. On Aug. 11, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said in an interview that Turkey’s NATO...

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On Ukraine, India Stands Firm With Neutrality

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kyiv on Friday to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a calculated diplomatic move designed to underscore India’s steadfast neutrality on the...

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New Political Lines Are Drawn in Germany

Voters in the German states of Thuringia and Saxony turned out in large numbers on Sunday against the parties that presently constitute Germany’s federal coalition government: the Social Democratic...

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Will the West Let Ukraine Strike Farther Into Russia?

On Sept. 14, Ukraine again asked the West for permission to strike deeper into Russian territory. The request came a day after U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met in...

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In Central Europe, Massive Floods Bring Massive Implications

Floods rocked Central and Eastern Europe last week, inundating Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary and Romania with the worst water levels they’ve seen in two decades. Though...

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Europe’s Economic Outlook: Past Changes, Future Problems

The economic news from Europe over the past month has been bleak. Throughout the eurozone, gross domestic product is either stagnant or in decline. Business surveys from September show that Germany’s...

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BRICS Runs Into a Wall

For leaders such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the annual BRICS summit is an excellent opportunity to present a vision of a world in which the United States does not lead. And yet, each summit...

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